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2002 promises tech changes for family
Faster home Internet access, more children with mobile
phones and continued wrangling over laws to shield youngsters from
online porn are among the things I see for the year 2002.
As usual, the crystal ball is a bit cloudy. So my predictions for
family technology in the new year don't come with any iron-glad
guarantees. Still, there are some emerging trends that are likely
to shape the way families interact with technology during the
coming year.
One hot area is the growth of broadband, which, for most
people, means connecting to the Internet via DSL -- digital
subscriber line -- or cable modems. Despite the well-publicized
failures within the industry, broadband to the home experienced
major growth in 2001, according to Nielsen//Net Ratings, which
reported there were 21.3 million U.S. homes with broadband in
November, up 90 percent from a year ago.
That, according to the research group, accounts for more than
20 percent of all active Internet users. I can't vouch for the
accuracy of those numbers -- they seem a bit high to me -- but
even if you cut it in half, it's still a clear indication that
lots of families are starting to see the advantages of always on,
high-speed Internet connections.
It strikes me this trend could accelerate through 2002 and
beyond. Within a few years, we should reach the point where
broadband becomes the norm rather than the exception. For families
and for the tech industry, this raises all sorts of opportunities
and challenges.
For one thing, it means there will be a rise in home-based
networks. It's already common for families to have multiple PCs.
Now that you can get PCs for as little as $399, it's not all that
rare for each family member to have his or her own machine. The
home networking market, according to Cahners In-Stat Group, is
expected to grow from $1.4 billion in 2001 to $9.2 billion
worldwide by 2006.
Once you get broadband into the home, it makes sense to share
it among family members. Some broadband services, including SBC
Pacific Bell's DSL, offer optional residential gateways or routers
that make it possible to connect multiple machines. Pacific Bell,
for example, resells a version of the 2wire HomePortal that allows
you to connect machines through standard Ethernet, using regular
phone wires or -- with optional equipment -- via a wireless
802.11b network.
Having broadband and multiple PCs in the home does create
challenges when it comes to monitoring or controlling what kids do
online. Parents need to be on guard whenever their kids are using
the PC because, by default with broadband, all machines on the
network are always online. Unlike dialup, you won't hear the modem
noises or see lights on your extension phone indicating the line
is in use.
In addition to going online, an increasing number of kids are
going to be using cell phones. In 2000, 36 percent of teens had
cell phones, and that number is expected to jump to 68 percent by
2005, according to Yankee Group. About 80 percent of Scandinavian
kids already have what Europeans call ``mobile phones.''
There are plenty of positives to kids having their own phones,
but there are concerns as well. My 15-year-old son, who doesn't
yet have his own phone, tells me some of his friends consider them
to be electronic leashes, because their parents call often and get
annoyed if the phone is off or the kid doesn't answer. It also
means kids can be contacted by others when they're away from home.
Children should be warned to be careful about giving out their
mobile phone numbers, and to never disclose their number in a chat
room or other public place.
By the end of 2002, some families might be getting their hands
on 3G high-bandwidth mobile phones that add additional services,
including high-speed Web surfing and streaming audio and video --
just when you thought you had some semblance of control over what
your kids do online.
Instant messaging has been around for years, and it's already a
staple part of many kids' lives. Even when my teenagers are at the
computer doing homework, they're probably also chatting online
with schoolmates. So far, it's mostly text chat -- but that could
change in 2002 as more kids discover they can now have video and
audio chats via Yahoo Messenger (http://messenger.yahoo.com)
and Windows Messenger, which is included with Windows XP.
Adding video, photos and talk can make chat more personal and
fun, but it also adds obvious dangers. Remind your kids to be
careful about whom they communicate with, what they say and -- by
all means -- what they show to strangers.
The demise of Napster in 2001 as a free-for-all music swapping
service didn't put an end to the practice of online song sharing.
It will continue to be popular in 2002, thanks to all the other
``peer-to-peer'' file services that let people swap far more than
music.
Once kids become familiar with these services, they'll discover
they can download copyrighted software, current full-length
feature films and plenty of other stuff, including sexually
explicit material.
There will be plenty of litigation this year regarding kids and
the Internet.
The Children's Online Protection Act, which became law in 1998,
has been challenged by a coalition led by the ACLU. Two federal
courts have already suspended enforcement of the law and it's now
before the U.S. Supreme Court. In November, the high court heard
arguments from both the ACLU and the Justice Department and the
court must now decide whether commercial Web sites must take steps
to keep material considered ``harmful to minors'' out of the reach
of children. The lower courts have agreed with the law's
opponents, who argue it would impose an undo burden on speech that
is protected for adults.
Regardless of what the court decides, you can bet there will
continue to be plenty of legislation designed to ``protect our
kids.'' Numerous state and federal acts will be debated on issues
such as unsolicited ``spam'' e-mail, including the seemingly
unending stream of sexually explicit messages that find their way
into children's mailboxes. |
